The Forex Daily Analysis for August 9, 2025 reflects heightened volatility after mixed economic data and shifting central bank sentiment. Traders are digesting the latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report, anticipating the upcoming FOMC meeting minutes, and eyeing inflation readings from CPI.
In today’s Forex Daily Analysis, we’ll break down technical and fundamental setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD, followed by actionable trading scenarios for the short term.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
Daily Chart Overview:
The EUR/USD pair is trading around 1.1080, holding above its 50-day moving average but facing resistance at the 1.1125–1.1140 zone.
- Resistance Levels: 1.1125, 1.1180, 1.1220
- Support Levels: 1.1050, 1.1015, 1.0970
Technical Indicators:
- RSI (14): 58 — suggesting mild bullish momentum without overbought conditions.
- MACD: Histogram is positive but flattening, indicating potential consolidation before a breakout.
- Price Action: A bullish flag is forming, but failure to hold 1.1050 could lead to a deeper retracement.
Outlook: Bias remains mildly bullish if price sustains above 1.1050, targeting 1.1180 in the short term.
According to today’s Forex Daily Analysis, EUR/USD shows a mild bullish bias as long as 1.1050 holds, with upside potential toward 1.1180.
GBP/USD
Daily Chart Overview:
GBP/USD is hovering near 1.2985, supported by a recent rebound from the 1.2900 level but capped by resistance near the psychological 1.3000 mark.
- Resistance Levels: 1.3000, 1.3045, 1.3100
- Support Levels: 1.2940, 1.2900, 1.2855
Technical Indicators:
- RSI (14): 61 — bullish territory, close to overbought.
- MACD: Bullish crossover intact, but momentum is slowing.
- Price Action: The pair has formed higher lows since late July, suggesting an uptrend continuation if 1.2940 holds.
Outlook: A daily close above 1.3000 could open the way to 1.3100, while a break below 1.2900 may shift momentum bearish.
Our Forex Daily Analysis suggests GBP/USD may extend gains if 1.3000 is cleared, but caution is warranted near overbought levels
XAU/USD (Gold)
Daily Chart Overview:
Gold is trading near $2,345/oz, consolidating after a sharp rally driven by risk-off sentiment earlier in the week.
- Resistance Levels: $2,355, $2,372, $2,400
- Support Levels: $2,330, $2,315, $2,290
Technical Indicators:
- RSI (14): 64 — bullish but nearing overbought.
- MACD: Positive with strong histogram bars, indicating bullish momentum.
- Price Action: Gold is forming a bullish continuation pattern on the 4H chart, suggesting a possible breakout if $2,355 is cleared.
Outlook: A sustained break above $2,355 could trigger a move toward $2,400. However, failure to hold above $2,330 might invite selling pressure toward $2,315.
Today’s Forex Daily Analysis highlights gold consolidating near $2,345, with a potential bullish breakout above $2,355
Fundamental Analysis — Key Events This Week
A core part of Forex Daily Analysis is linking technical setups with fundamentals. This week, NFP data, FOMC minutes, and CPI will dictate momentum across USD pairs and gold.
Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) — August 8, 2025
The July NFP report showed +215K jobs added, above the forecast of 190K, while unemployment ticked down to 3.7%. However, wage growth slowed to 0.3% MoM, easing inflationary pressure.
Market Impact: The stronger jobs data supported USD early in the session, but softer wage numbers kept expectations for aggressive Fed tightening in check.
FOMC Meeting Minutes — Scheduled August 13, 2025
Traders are awaiting the FOMC minutes for insight into the Fed’s September rate decision. Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bps cut as inflation continues to moderate.
Potential Market Reaction:
- Dovish tone: Could weaken USD and boost EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and gold.
- Hawkish tone: Could strengthen USD and pressure risk assets.
CPI Data — August 14, 2025
US CPI for July is forecast at 3.0% YoY, down from 3.2% in June. A lower reading would further solidify the case for Fed easing, while an upside surprise could trigger USD buying.
Trading Scenarios for August 9–13, 2025
EUR/USD Scenarios:
Bullish:
- Enter long on a break above 1.1125 with targets at 1.1180 and 1.1220.
- Stop-loss: 1.1090.
Bearish:
- Enter short on a break below 1.1050 with targets at 1.1015 and 1.0970.
- Stop-loss: 1.1075.
GBP/USD Scenarios:
Bullish:
- Buy above 1.3000 for targets at 1.3045 and 1.3100.
- Stop-loss: 1.2960.
Bearish:
- Sell below 1.2940 for targets at 1.2900 and 1.2855.
- Stop-loss: 1.2975.
XAU/USD (Gold) Scenarios:
Bullish:
- Buy above $2,355 for targets at $2,372 and $2,400.
- Stop-loss: $2,340.
Bearish:
- Sell below $2,330 for targets at $2,315 and $2,290.
- Stop-loss: $2,342.
Conclusion
Today’s forex daily analysis suggests a cautiously bullish bias for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and XAU/USD heading into next week’s high-impact events. Traders should keep an eye on the FOMC minutes and CPI release, which could set the tone for the remainder of August.
Tip: Always combine technical setups with fundamental drivers for a complete forex market outlook. Manage risk carefully, as sudden price moves are common during macroeconomic announcements.
FAQ — Daily Forex Market Analysis
Q1: What is the main driver for today’s forex market?
Today’s moves are influenced by yesterday’s stronger-than-expected NFP numbers and the anticipation of next week’s FOMC minutes and CPI release.
Q2: Which currency pairs are most impacted?
EUR/USD and GBP/USD are showing moderate bullish momentum, while XAU/USD is consolidating near a key resistance level.
Q3: How should traders prepare for next week?
Monitor upcoming economic releases, keep positions sized conservatively, and consider reducing exposure ahead of high-impact events like the FOMC minutes.
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